A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
